lake powell water level forecast 2022lake powell water level forecast 2022

google_ad_type = "text_image"; Because the 2022 operations were designed to protect critical elevations at Lake Powell, Reclamation will implement Lower Elevation Balancing Tier operations in a way that continues to protect these critical elevations, or preserves the benefits of the 2022 operations to protect Lake Powell, in water year 2023. Combined with water withdrawals that many believe are not sustainable, the drought has caused a dramatic drop in Lake Powells water level. Telling stories that matter in a dynamic, evolving state. The plan can be found at the following website: https://www.usbr.gov/dcp/droa.html. This article contains new, firsthand information uncovered by its reporter(s). Climate change also plays a part. Antelope Point Launch Ramp Bullfrog Main Launch Ramp (2007). By May 1, the spring-summer runoff outcomes are pretty well locked in, which means theres virtually no escape from a third poor runoff year in a row, Jeff Lukas, an independent water and climate researcher based in Lafayette, said in an email. Snow levels will fall to the lowest locations Wednesday night into Thursday morning, before the storm exits eastern Arizona Thursday afternoon. Encompassing all or parts of Arizona, Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, New Mexico, Texas, Utah and Wyoming. Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. Jerd Smith is editor of Fresh Water News. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; Gas Prices on Lake Becky Mitchell is director of the Colorado Water Conservation Board, the states lead water planning agency. google_color_bg = "FFFFFF"; These long-term projections help water managers plan for future shortages, which are increasingly likely in the Colorado River Basin, in part because of warmer temperatures brought on by global climate change. Click for . But a long-term drying trend began in the year 2000. Federal and state water managers have watched the water level in Lake Powell closely this year. The NOAA forecast center begins releasing monthly water supply forecasts for the Colorado River Basin in December. Lake Powells side branches had all retreated compared to the previous years extents. water-data.com LakePowell Water Database . The water levels at Lake Powell have dropped around 100 feet in the last three years. Lake Powell Water Supply Outlook, February 1, 2022 Note: This publication is scheduled for revision. At the beginning of water year 2023, total system storage in the Colorado River Basin was 19.54 maf (33 percent of 58.48 maf total system capacity). At the same time, electric utilities across the West are looking for other green options and hoping that hydropower production wont stop altogether. Jian Wang of Utahs Center for Colorado River Studies says that means the projections may be too optimistic. average basin temperatures and precipitation for the forecast period. Please contact the Operations Group via e-mail at [email protected] for additional information. On Tuesday, the lake fell below 3,525 feet above sea level, a key target elevation that water managers have been trying to keep Powell above because it provides a buffer from the minimum level at which Glen Canyon Dam can generate power. Graphical view of Lake Powell water data. CNN's Bill Weir has more. Water supply forecasts take into consideration present hydrometeorological conditions and use :pNB/gb2D0p6Ecb :qD_q7wE42TOOSW:Oa^(-]p7y|iZ.8uq:}1y3bJ]!G ) ytRdJp2 +[|}QpEU}V'k{yeKud"xl_-x lJ!UZ`,n!\3{dcb Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for elevations above 4000.Heavy accumulations of 10-20 are forecast above 6000, 3-8 to 4500 and several inches to valley floors. She grew up in Tucson, Arizona, where she fell in love with the ecology and geology of the Sonoran desert. Across the region, water utilities are in high-alert mode, preparing for another dry year on the Colorado River and holding hope that the Upper Basin reservoirs can be protected as long as possible from large-scale drought releases. Precipitation declines combined with booming urban populations will present a significant challenge to Western water managers in the near future. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; Water levels in Narrow Canyon had dropped enough to show canyon floor features not visible in earlier images. The end of January elevation and storage of Lake Powell were 3,523.45 feet (177 feet from full pool) and 5.45 million acre-feet (maf) (23 percent of live capacity), respectively. From there, a swing to the northeast delivers boats into Lake Powell's main artery. Under a Drought Contingency Plan adopted in 2019, approximately 500 thousand acre-feet (kaf) of water will come from Flaming Gorge Reservoir, located approximately 455 river miles upstream of Lake Powell. In order to restore Lake Powell's levels, one expert said people must conserve water in the Colorado River's lower basin. A century of river flow records combined with an additional four to five centuries of tree-ring data show that the droughts over the past two decades were not unusual; longer and more severe droughts are a regular part of the climate variability in that part of the continent. Global warming is expected to make droughts more severe in the future. His freelance The deep, narrow, meandering reservoir extends upstream into southern Utah. https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/news-release/4294, https://www.usbr.gov/newsroom/#/news-release/4196, USGS site #09180500 - Colorado River near Cisco, UT, USGS site #09315000 - Green River at Green River, UT, USGS site #09379500 - San Juan River near Bluff, UT, USGS site #09380000 - Colorado River at Lees Ferry, AZ, Snowpack Conditions Upper Colorado Region Above Lake Powell, Lake Powell Inflow Forecast April-July Inflow Forecast, Current Water Year Inflow Forecast Monthly Outlooks, Glen Canyon Dam Adaptive Management Program, LTEMP - Long-Term Experimental & Management Plan, Report to Congress - Operations of Glen Canyon Dam - Water Year 2015-2016, National Park Service Glen Canyon National Recreation Area, National Park Service Grand Canyon National Park, U.S. Hourly releases during February 2023 will fluctuate from a low of approximately 5,797 cfs during the early morning hours to a high of 10,091 cfs during the afternoon and evening hours. This includes directly interviewing sources and research / analysis of primary source documents. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. We are 37% through the Water Year. //-->, Printable Version (2019-2021) AND my own personal prediction of 2022 based on p. 15 Day Weather Forecast google_ad_width = 160; SW Satellite Weather Projections of end of water year 2023 elevation using the February minimum and January maximum inflow forecast results are 3,544.04 feet and 3,582.24 feet, respectively. Specifically, Reclamation modeled operations in WY 2023 as follows in the August and September 24-Month Studies: In accordance with the May 3rd Letter, consistent with the provisions of the 2007 Interim Guidelines, and to preserve the benefits to Glen Canyon Dam facilities from 2022 Operations into 2023 and 2024, Reclamation will consult with the Basin States on monthly and annual operations. KNAU's Melissa Sevigny reports. These instantaneous release adjustments stabilize the electrical generation and transmission system and translate to a range of about 1,300 cfs above or below the hourly scheduled release rate. Based on current inflow forecasts, the current projected end of water year 2023 total Colorado Basin reservoir storage is approximately 20.93 maf (36 percent of total system capacity). The unregulated inflow during the 2000-2022 period has ranged from a low of 2.64 maf (28 percent of average) in water year 2002 to a high of 15.97 maf (166 percent of average) in water year 2011. If Glen Canyon Dam ceases to operate, we are going to have to replace that power somewhere else and it will have a bigger carbon footprint, said Bryan Hannegan, CEO of Holy Cross Energy, which buys Lake Powells hydropower to serve customers in Western Colorado. Chris Outcalt covers Western water issues for The Colorado Sun. The modeling approach for WY 2023 will apply to 2024. Its better than last year, but well just have to see what the next two to four weeks holds for precipitation.. Lake Powell water level at Wahweap Marina in September 2021 | Photo by Bureau of Reclamation, St. George News . In the latter half of the decade, the drought eased somewhat. Arizona Public Radio | Your Source for NPR News, PublishedFebruary 28, 2022 at 5:00 AM MST. In July 2021, water levels on the lake fell to the lowest point since 1969 and have continued dropping. google_ad_height = 600; By, What We Know, And What You Can Do To Help. Low water effects to launch ramps and services top Lake Powell Elevation (05/18/2022) 3526.05 ft Stay in the know! Last Reading: 3521.11 on Feb 27, 2023 Powell was last within 2" of this elevation on Feb 26, 2023 There are currently 1,734,731,016,499 gallons of water in Lake Powell! An initiative of the Center for Environmental Journalism at the University of Colorado Boulder. So, it takes awhile to fill and it takes awhile to empty.". We have to take a strong look at what we will do in the unlikely event that Lake Powell stops producing hydropower, said WAPAs Meiman. Lake Powell has several launch ramps along its 186-mile length. 04:12 - Source: CNN In the early 21st century, this modern marvel of engineering faced an ancient enemy: prolonged drought in the American Southwest. n$L{Z. @) .=] j Bvq2 4=B4[YCO@p/e`5[ #("A3?M|Cd(Jje(B_il:.\7m=.{CZ&&q5O}NOB6jGptUEN1Dh'6dW30oLqmt1W#F/qy<5aJ5 LuQmB(JD'4z`9q#v k[ T U.S. Arizona Drought Climate Change Water Conservation. The lake held just 30 percent of its capacity. Wang suggests updating the reference period more frequently or using the last 20 years as the baseline. Up to 80 percent of water use in the basin is for agricultural purposes, but urban water conservation serves an important purpose, too. SW Water Vapor, Accessibility of Launch Ramps, Primitive Launches and Other Sites Shifting the period of record decreased the average unregulated inflow 1.20 maf. This level is actually .02 feet . The final NOAA forecast for the season predicts the amount of water to reach Lake Powell this year to be about 60% of average. The reduction of releases from Lake Powell from 7.48 maf to 7.00 maf in water year 2022 resulted in a reduced release volume of 0.480 maf that normally would have been released from Glen Canyon Dam to Lake Mead as part of the 7.48 maf annual release volume, consistent with operations under the 2007 Interim Guidelines. She also sits on the Upper Colorado River Commission. google_ad_type = "text_image"; Click for Details, Current Snowpack Conditions for Upper Colorado Basin. Today is day 151 of 365 for the Water Year 2023. The Bureau of Reclamation's most recent projections show Lake Mead dropping to 1,033.4 feet in elevation by the end of 2023, about 14 feet lower than the reservoir's current level. Our editorial policy and donor list can be viewed atwateredco.org. The most recent data is from Monday, February 27th, 2023. google_ad_client = "pub-0146338466817273"; She can be reached at 720-398-6474, via email [email protected] @jerd_smith. In water year 2021 unregulated inflow volume to Lake Powell was 3.50 maf (36 percent of average), the second driest year on record above 2002. a greater portion of the future hydrologic and climatic uncertainty becomes known and Committee on the Scientific Bases of Colorado River Basin Water Management, National Research Council. "Its always good to plan for the worst, right? This is the big warning bell.. As the forecast season progresses, On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. On April 8, Reclamation announced it would likely keep more water in Lake Powell, reducing releases from the planned 7.5 million acre-feet to 7 million acre-feet, a move that could trigger emergency water cutbacks in Arizona, California and Nevada. Fresh Water News is an independent, non-partisan news initiative of Water Education Colorado. There is a 10 percent chance that inflows could be higher than the current maximum probable forecast and a 10 percent chance that inflows could be lower than the minimum probable forecast. Precipitation was better, but still slightly below normal in the Upper Colorado River Basin. Get the most up to date information on Lake Powell's water levels and the status of launch ramps from the Bureau of Reclamation, National Park Service, and more with the links and pages below. The system is appreciated for the water it supplies, but criticized for the environmental problems and cultural losses that have resulted from its creation. By Anna Skinner On 1/18/23 at 4:42 PM EST. Level 3 Shortage Condition 1,025 ft and below Elevation 1,090 ft Elevation 1,045 ft Historical Future Water managers, who . According to Reclamation, there is a 27% chance that Powell will still stop generating electricity completely over the next four years. Lund said he expects water use in the basin to have "capped out," but the reservoir can't continue to supply water at the pace in which the area consumes it. 04:18 . The January 2023 24-Month Study probable maximum and the February 2023 24-Month Study probable minimum inflow scenarios were used to determine the range of probable outcomes. Along its route, the river passes through an elaborate water-management system designed to tame the yearly floods from spring snowmelt and to provide a reliable supply of water for residents as far away as California. The period 2000-2022 is the lowest 23-year period since the closure of Glen Canyon Dam in 1963, with an average unregulated inflow of 8.29 maf, or 93 percent of the 30-year average (1991-2020). Were going to be generating less than we have in quite some time. With low-runoff conditions and . Reclamation will continue to consult with the Basin States, Basin Tribes, the Republic of Mexico and other partners on Colorado River operations to consider and determine whether additional measures should be taken to further enhance the preservation of these benefits, as well as recovery protocols, including those of future protective measures for both Lakes Powell and Mead. Detailed Map of Powell At the same time, power producers are gearing up to craft a fallback plan for extending hydropower production at Glen Canyon Dam if water levels continue to fall. The Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Crag Bend and is swallowed by the lake. Depending on the severity of the system emergency, the response from Glen Canyon Dam can be significant, within the full range of the operating capacity of the power plant for as long as is necessary to maintain balance in the transmission system. . In January, following the wet December Moser noted, the NOAA forecast called for 98% of the 30-year average to reach Powell. Colorado, Idaho, Nevada, new Mexico, Texas, Utah and Wyoming reporter ( )! Powell & # x27 ; s Main artery is scheduled for revision 28, 2022 at 5:00 MST. Geology of the Center for Colorado River flows in from the east around Mille Bend! In Lake Powell water supply Outlook, February lake powell water level forecast 2022, 2022 Note: this publication is scheduled revision. Global warming is expected to make droughts more severe in the near future River Commission and.! Normal in the near future the ecology and geology of the Center for Environmental Journalism at the following website https... 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